We’ve had some surprises in the last week that have thrown markets for a loop and created some uncertainty and volatility. Friday’s jobs report was a much greater stinker than expected. New job creation rose just 194,000, a disappointing performance compared to the median expectation of 475,000.
Markets are also reacting to rising economic and financial market uncertainty. And even as the housing market remains strong there are signs that we may have reached the apex of home price appreciation.
Also, we got good news this week that the conforming loan limits have been increased to $625,000! What does this mean for you? If you have a high balance mortgage, you should definitely consider refinancing into a conforming mortgage which often means a lower interest rate. Reach out to me at 818.307.6072 and let’s discuss your options.
What I’m watching this week…
This is a holiday shortened week with the bond market and banks closed on Monday for Columbus Day / Indigenous People’s Day. As for the rest of the week, we have some important inflation reports due out as well as the Fed’s Meeting Minutes and the latest Retail Sales numbers. All of this data, in addition to the volatility and uncertainty already present could cause rates to react.
Wednesday we get a look at consumer inflation levels. Inflation has been a growing concern and although many economists believe it will be transitory, we’ll see how the markets react. Predictions are that the CPI (consumer price index) will remain steady at 5.3 percent year-over-year; while the report on wholesale inflation is predicted to rise to 8.7 percent.
The Fed Meeting Minutes also come out Wednesday. Normally the release doesn’t cause much of a stir; however, with the Fed planning to taper its bond buying in November, at its next meeting, there’s likely to be lots of interest in how the discussions went down at the meeting.
Friday we get a look at the latest Retail Sales numbers, which as we head into the holiday shopping season will have a greater impact on markets. Retail sales bounced 0.7 percent higher in August though Covid concerns were still depressing restaurants and limiting non-essential spending. The consensus for September, reflecting special weakness for autos, is a 0.1 percent headline setback but excluding auto sales is seen up a moderate 0.4 percent.
Special Message: Let’s talk about refi’s or purchases with the new 2022 loan limits. We can use these new loan limits immediately and will help people with high balance loans get conforming loan rates if under the limit.