Important Jobs Report Friday

As a nice kick-off to summer, the survey of average mortgage rates showed a little improvement last week as we headed off for the long Memorial Day Weekend. According to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, average mortgage rates fell by .05 percent in their survey. 

There’s lots of talk in the media about housing and whether we’re heading for a bubble. As far as the data I’m looking at yes, appreciation levels are rising, as prices are being pushed higher by low inventory. However, as homes continue to be built, the squeeze on inventory will be alleviated. Would we like to see a smoother, more gradual rise in prices? Yes, but this is not a ‘bubble’ and as the inventory of available homes increases and rates increase we will likely see some slowing and smoothing in housing. 

This week, a holiday-shortened week is serving up a healthy dose of economic data for markets to digest, culminating in Friday’s monthly Jobs Report. The parade of employment reports begin tomorrow with ADP’s look at the number of private sector jobs created.  

ADP’s April estimate for a 742,000 rise in private payrolls was far above the 218,000 actual result. The consensus forecast for ADP’s May estimate is 627,000.

We also get a look at the Fed’s Beige Book report, a look at the health of the economy from its various regions around the country. Traders will be watching this report for analysis of the health of our economy as Covid counts decrease and re-opening gains momentum. 

Then on Thursday the report on new claims for unemployment comes out. Jobless claims for the May 29 week are expected to come in at 400,000 versus 406,000 in the May 22 week. Initial filings have been moving steadily lower as our economy continues to recover.

Then on Friday the monthly Jobs Report comes out. A rise of 645,000 is the consensus for May new job creation following April’s increase of 266,000. After exceeding expectations significantly in February and March, this report missed expectations badly in April.

The unemployment rate is projected to continue coming down to 5.9 percent from 6.1 percent. Also good news is that the percentage of Americans in the workforce is expected to rise from 61.7 to 61.8 percent. 

And, of course, if you have yet to refinance or are looking to purchase a home or an investment property, let’s talk. Call or text me and we can go over scenarios to help you achieve your home goals!