It’s been a bit of a roller coaster in the mortgage market this week, with interest rates ticking up after a promising dip. I’ve got some good news and not so good news looking ahead.
The Not-So-Good News
Increased tension in the Middle East, while often good for bonds, has pushed oil prices higher. And as we know, higher oil prices usually mean higher inflation, which isn’t ideal for mortgage rates. We also have a potential port strike brewing, which could lead to supply chain issues and further price increases.
The Silver Lining
On the bright side, the job market is showing signs of strength, which is actually good news for the economy overall. It means we might just achieve that “soft landing” the Federal Reserve keeps talking about – slowing inflation without a recession. Strong job numbers also suggest the Fed might hold off on further significant rate cuts for now.
Where Do Rates Go From Here?
The robust jobs report sent the 10-year Treasury bond higher, also causing rates to tick higher rather quickly. Analysts believe the worst of the volatility caused by the jobs report Friday is over. I will continue to monitor the 10-year Treasury bond, and if it closes consistently above the 3.80 percent level, we could see rates continue to rise.
I’ll also be closely watching the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report later this week – positive news on the inflation front could help bring rates down. The CPI is expected to rise 0.1 percent on the month in September and 2.3 percent on the year, slower than 0.2 percent and 2.5 percent seen the previous month.
What Does This Mean for You?
Even with the recent uptick, rates are still significantly lower than they were a year ago. If you’re thinking about buying a home or refinancing, it’s a good time to explore your options. With home prices stabilizing and inventory increasing, the market is becoming more buyer-friendly.
As always, I’m here to help you navigate these market fluctuations and find the best mortgage solution for your needs. Feel free to reach out, and let’s explore your options! Send me an email or text/call me at 818.307.6072.
