The mortgage market is currently in an interesting place, with rates dipping to their lowest level in 10 months. But with the annual Jackson Hole Symposium right around the corner, there’s a lot to watch for.
What’s Happening with Rates?
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell by .05 percent for last week, according to Freddie Mac. This decline in rates has already led to an improvement in home purchase application activity, as potential buyers look to take advantage of the more favorable market. In fact, a recent report from TransUnion showed that mortgage originations rose 5.1 percent year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, largely thanks to a big jump in refinance activity. Rate-and-term refinances were up 44 percent, and cash-out refinances increased by 19 percent.
This trend is a big win for homeowners, especially for Gen X and Baby Boomers, who are leveraging their significant home equity. The home equity market has seen its strongest growth in three years, rising 12 percent in the first quarter of 2025. While rates have been relatively stable this week, this period of calm might be the prelude to a bigger move.
All Eyes on Jackson Hole
The main event is this week’s Jackson Hole Symposium, a gathering of global central bankers where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak. His words could have a major impact on the market. Last year, his speech gave us clues about the Fed’s plans for rate cuts, inflation, and jobs, which significantly moved the markets.
This year, a Fed rate cut in September is widely anticipated, and Powell’s comments could either confirm this expectation or create uncertainty. It’s important to remember that a Fed rate cut doesn’t automatically mean lower mortgage rates. The market often “prices in” future rate moves, so we might not see a one-for-one drop. Still, the symposium is the most important event on the calendar for those of us watching the market closely.
A Look at the Housing Market
We’ll get a look at Existing Home Sales numbers this week. Sales are expected to remain muted at an annual 3.9 million homes rate in July, compared with 3.93 million in June, as consumers stay cautious and affordability remains a big problem.
Speaking of housing, have you ever wondered where the most expensive houses are? While places like California and New York might come to mind, a recent study from Craftsmen Home Improvements shows some surprising results. Hawaii leads the nation with an average listing price of over $1.54 million. Following closely behind are New York and California, but perhaps the most surprising entrants in the top six are Montana and Wyoming, with average listing prices over $1.1 million.
So, while the overall market is seeing an uptick in activity, the picture on the ground varies dramatically depending on where you are. I’ll be keeping a close eye on the Jackson Hole Symposium to see what the next move for rates will be, and I’ll share that information with you in the update next week.
