We Can Be Thankful for Rates Trending Lower!

Just in time for Thanksgiving last week, rates ticked lower by a nice margin, providing a welcome improvement for buyers ready to lock in. In fact, rates have been hovering near 2-month lows! 

By the way, if you would like me to be watching mortgage rates for you, let’s talk and figure out the best game plan for your specific situation.

Even as we start this week after a long Thanksgiving Holiday lull, rates remain relatively favorable. So far it’s been a pretty quiet week in markets as we come out of the weekend turkey & shopping comas. 

As for the housing and economic market data, this is what I’m seeing…

On Tuesday we got a look at the latest numbers for home price appreciation. We saw the monthly rate fall 1.5 percent in September after falling 1.3 percent in August. The unadjusted annual rate slowed to 10.4 percent from 13.1 percent.

Another indicator I keep a close eye on this time of year is consumer confidence and this month we watched it continue to fall as consumers look warily at the economy – ironically not likely realizing that consumer activity accounts for two-thirds of our nation’s economic activity. 

Wednesday begins the parade of Employment Reports because, yes, this is Jobs Week and all culminates on Friday with the government’s Jobs Report, the most impactful economic report we see each month. 

The ADP report on private sector job creation comes out Wednesday and forecasters see November’s employment number at 200,000. This would compare with the October growth in private payrolls reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of 233,000. ADP’s number for October was 239,000.

Sandwiched in between the all-important jobs reports is the Fed’s favorite inflation report on Thursday. The PCE Index readings for October are expected at monthly gains of 0.4 overall versus 0.5 percent last month, for an overall annual rate of 6.0 versus September’s 6.2. If predictions are correct, the data continues to support that inflation has peaked and is improving.

As for Friday’s Jobs Report, a 200,000 rise is the estimate for job growth in November which would compare with 261,000 in October. October was the sixth straight month and eight of the last nine that payroll growth exceeded economist expectations. The unemployment rate is expected to stay in a healthy range at 3.7 percent. Even wage inflation is expected to remain steady to lower, which would be favorable for improving mortgage rates.