As we head into a shortened week due to the July 4th holiday, I wanted to bring you up to speed on the latest in the mortgage market. It’s been an interesting period, with several key factors influencing interest rates.
Good news for borrowers: interest rates have dipped slightly again! The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged a .04 percent improvement as of June 26, 2025. This stability in rates, fluctuating within a narrow range since mid-April, is offering a bit of comfort. In fact, we’re now within striking distance of the “mid-6s” seen back in early April.
A major driver behind this recent dip was the surprising news of an Israel-Iran ceasefire. This positive development led to a historic drop in oil prices, which in turn boosted both stocks and bonds, pushing rates lower. The bond market has been rallying for over a month, steadily driving rates down.
There’s also growing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Following their June 18th meeting, more Fed members are open to a rate cut at the upcoming July 30th meeting, especially if inflation remains contained, which several Fed Members believe it will, despite tariffs. This week’s Jobs Report will be closely watched, as weaker readings could further strengthen the case for a July rate cut – more on that in a bit.
As for what I’m watching this week, of course, the monthly jobs report and all pre-quel reports will take center stage and headlines. The ADP report on private sector job creation comes out Wednesday. It’s predicted to show a substantial improvement in private sector job creation, expected up by 103K new jobs after rising only 37K in May.
The government’s jobs report on new job creation is expected to show new jobs numbers up by 115K and the jobless rate at 4.3 percent for June, showing some slowing versus 139K and 4.2 percent in May. Is it an outlier? Only time will tell.
What does this mean for the housing market? While home sales remain low, the resulting increase in available inventory is providing homebuyers with more options. We’re also seeing a slight cooling in home prices, with a modest 0.1% overall dip in May. This suggests the market is starting to favor buyers more, and sellers may need to adjust their expectations.
The bottom line is that the market continues to evolve, and we’re seeing some promising movements for borrowers. If you’ve been considering a move or a refinance, now could be a great time to explore your options.
Please don’t hesitate to reach out if you have any questions or would like to discuss what these trends mean for your unique situation. You’re always welcome to send me an email or call/text me at 818.307.6072, and I’m happy to support you.
Have a safe and Happy Fourth, friend!
