I hope your February is off to a wonderful start! Between the groundhog’s prediction and the shifting winds in the financial markets, there is certainly a lot to talk about this week.
As we look toward the spring home-buying season, I wanted to share some heartening news: we are currently seeing some of the most favorable mortgage market conditions in three years. While we aren’t quite back to the “good old days” of 2020, the stability we’ve seen lately is a breath of fresh air for anyone looking to buy or refinance.
The Big News: A New Hand at the Helm
The biggest headline this week isn’t an economic report, but a person. President Trump has tapped Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. This is a significant shift; Warsh is known for a “Main Street over Wall Street” philosophy. He’s less interested in the Fed buying up mortgage bonds and more interested in letting the economy run “hot” to support small businesses. While the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly, the bond market is already reacting to his potential leadership.
Market Trends: Stability is the Word
Despite a brief government shutdown and a resilient economy that’s still growing at over 4%, mortgage rates have remained remarkably steady, hovering near their lowest levels since early 2022.
• Refinance Surge: This recent dip has actually put nearly five million homeowners “in the money” to refinance.
• Affordability: Buying power is at a four-year high. In fact, the monthly payment on an average home has dropped by about $164 compared to this time last year.
What’s Next?
We have a “critical week” ahead with the January Jobs Report and CPI (inflation) data arriving shortly. These reports are the “undisputed champions” of market movement. If the data shows the economy is cooling slightly, we could see even more improvement. If it shows unexpected strength, we might see a brief correction.
The Bottom Line
Whether it’s a job change, a growing family, or simply being tired of renting, “life events” are starting to outweigh the hesitation to move. If you’ve been waiting for a sign to look at your options, the current stability is a great invitation to start the conversation.
I’m always here to run the numbers for you or your clients—no pressure, just clear advice. Feel free to send me an email or call/text me directly at 818.307.6072.
