Hope your week is going well! It has been a quietly important week in the mortgage and housing world, so here is what actually matters for you.
The encouraging news first: rates eased slightly again this week, though they remain just above this year’s highs.
Behind the scenes, a few things are lining up that could matter a lot. The Treasury’s plan to purchase longer-dated bonds, meant to smooth out that corner of the market, has caught real attention because it could also ease pressure on the longer-term rates that mortgages actually track. That matters more than what the Fed does with short-term rates.
On inflation, July’s reading looked tame, though a closer look showed nearly half of that small increase came from a one-time jump in portfolio management fees, hardly the kind of inflation higher rates can fix. Oil prices also slipped as tensions with Iran eased, another quiet tailwind.
Bond prices are now sitting at a key technical level. A break higher could support easing rates further, while a stumble could send us back toward fresh highs for the year.
Looking ahead, this week brings a wave of labor market data, including ADP, JOLTS, and the official jobs report, right before the Fed’s September meeting. Markets are also still digesting a notably cautious message from a Fed official at last week’s Jackson Hole gathering, who flagged housing strain but signaled openness to keeping rates higher for longer.
On the housing side, buyers are quietly gaining leverage. New listings just hit their highest point since spring, while signed contracts slipped to a six-month low, widening the gap between what is available and what is actually selling.
Nearly half of recent home sales included some kind of seller concession, often a rate buydown, and inventory is edging closer to a balanced market. If you or someone you know is house hunting, this is a great moment to ask about buydown options as part of the negotiation, not just the price.
I invite you to call or text me at 818.307.6072 or simply send me an email.
