I hope you’re having a wonderful week! It’s been a busy news cycle with a brisk housing market, so let’s get to it!
We’ve seen some interesting movement in the mortgage world this week. While rates have been doing a bit of a “tug-of-war”-climbing to a six-week high before showing some signs of a rebound-the underlying story is one of resilience.
The Global “Oil and Interest” Connection
You might wonder why I’m watching international news so closely. It’s because mortgage rates and oil prices often move in tandem. This week, as tensions in the Middle East showed signs of stabilizing, oil prices dipped, taking some of the pressure off Treasury yields. We are watching the 10-year Treasury closely; it’s currently hovering around a pivot point of 4.35%. If it stays below that mark, we could see some welcome downward momentum for rates.
Housing Market Momentum
Despite the recent volatility, the “spring” homebuying season is in full swing:
• New Home Sales: Jumped over 7%, proving that demand is still incredibly strong.
• Pending Sales: Signed contracts reached their highest level in nearly four years! Buyers are clearly jumping back in the moment they see a window of affordability.
• A “Buyer’s Market” Emerging? In many areas, especially former pandemic “boomtowns,” inventory is rising, and homes are staying on the market longer. This gives you more room to negotiate price cuts or seller concessions.
The “Tactical” Refinance Window
Interestingly, we’ve seen a massive surge in refinances recently, reaching a four-year high! This isn’t a traditional “boom,” but rather a “tactical window” where homeowners are grabbing modest rate improvements to save an average of $250+ per month. For many, even a small dip is enough to make a big difference in the family budget.
Latest Headlines
This week, all eyes were on inflation data and the Federal Reserve. Inflation reports (CPI and PPI) came in a bit higher than expected, which usually makes the bond market nervous. We’ll be watching how the market absorbs newly released Treasury notes to see where the next trend leads.
Whether you’re looking to buy your first home, curious if a “tactical refi” makes sense for you, or just want to chat about your trends in your area, I’m always here to help. You’re welcome to send me an email – your message comes directly to me – or call/text me at 818.307.6072.
