Hey there! I wanted to give you a quick update on what’s been happening in the mortgage market. It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster lately, but there’s some good news mixed in!
The past week or so has definitely been a wild ride. We saw significant volatility in the bond market, largely driven by tariff news. The 10-year Treasury note experienced some dramatic swings, which, as you know, have a direct impact on mortgage rates. We saw rates jump quite a bit initially. A key factor was some initial weakness in a 3-year note auction, which made markets nervous about future auctions.
Thankfully, things started to stabilize mid-week. We had a much stronger-than-expected 10-year note auction, and the announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs for countries not retaliating helped calm things down. The Dow Jones even had a record-breaking day! So, we went from a lot of uncertainty to a more measured, though still cautious, environment.
The good news is that despite that volatility, the trend for mortgage rates is still positive. Freddie Mac’s latest survey shows the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging below 7 percent for the twelfth straight week, which is encouraging. In fact, purchase applications are increasing, suggesting a potentially stronger spring homebuying season than we saw last year.
It’s important to remember that while things have calmed down, we’re not out of the woods yet. We still have some uncertainty around tariffs and how they might impact inflation. We’re also keeping a close eye on what the Federal Reserve is doing. Fed Chair Powell’s recent update is important in understanding how the Fed will balance the risks of tariff-driven inflation versus the need to support the economy.
As for the remainder of this week, we saw Retail Sales data come out, and forecasters say front-running tariff price increases accelerated sales of durable goods, especially autos, in March. Retail sales are seen up 1.4 percent in March on the month, up 0.3 percent excluding autos, and up 0.4 percent excluding autos and gas. That would follow softish figures of 0.2 percent, 0.3 percent, and 0.5 percent in February.
Data from the Housing Market included the Housing Market Index, which tracks home builder sentiment. It rebounded to 40; it was expected to continue trending down to 38 in the latest month from 39 in March and 42 in February.
The report on New Housing Starts and Building Permits comes out later this week, and the call for March is a 1.4 million unit rate, down from 1.5 million in February when starts outperformed expectations. Permits are seen at a 1.45 million unit rate in March versus 1.456 million in February.
Nevertheless, I imagine the biggest market movers will likely be any news related to trade negotiations and further comments from Fed officials.
As always, I’m committed to staying on top of these market changes and providing you with the best possible guidance. Whether you’re looking to buy a home, refinance, or just want to stay informed, I’m here to help. Don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions. You’re always welcome to send me an email or call/text me at 818.307.6072.
