I hope you’re having a wonderful week!
It’s been a significant few days in the financial and housing world. After the longest U.S. government shutdown in history ended, markets reacted with clear relief. This stability is important because it means interest rates are holding near the best levels of the year. The 10-Year Treasury yield, which heavily influences mortgage rates, is consistently trading beneath a key 4.20 percent level—a positive indicator for potentially lower rates ahead.
Rates and Activity Update
The latest numbers confirm this stability: the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged remained relatively flat week-over-week and notably lower than the 6.78 percent a year ago, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of average rates.
What’s truly encouraging is the boost in market engagement. Mortgage applications are up, with purchase applications surging 6 percent. This suggests rising inventory and stabilizing prices are successfully bringing buyers back into the fold.
Housing Forecasts and Buyer Insights
Looking into 2026, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) projects a rebound: existing-home sales are forecast to rise by 14 percent. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun expects mortgage rates to decline modestly, averaging around 6 percent next year, which should improve affordability. Home prices are still expected to see a slight increase of about 4 percent.
A key takeaway for first-time buyers: they continue to face hurdles with affordability, hitting a median age of 40 and often struggling with down payments (median is 10 percent). For seasoned homeowners, a driving factor for moving is the “grandbaby effect”—wanting to be closer to friends and family.
Opportunity for Homeowners
With rates easing and home equity at near-record highs, the refinance window is opening!
• The average borrower has about $204,000 in available home equity.
• The pool of “high quality” refinance candidates—those who could trim their rate by at least 0.75 percent—is now at a 3.5-year high of 1.7 million.
Whether you’re looking to lower your current rate or tap into your equity using a HELOC (which has seen interest rate offerings fall), there are meaningful opportunities right now.
What to Watch This Week
While the government is reopened, we are still waiting for key economic reports delayed by the shutdown. This week, keep an eye on:
• Wednesday: The FOMC Meeting Minutes will offer a deeper look into the Fed’s rate discussions.
• Thursday: The long-awaited September Jobs Report and Existing Home Sales data. These reports could cause some volatility.
I’m here to help you make sense of these shifts and guide your plans. Please reach out if you have questions about your home loan options! You can simply send me an email or give me a call/text at 818.307.6072.
